Costco’s entire model rests on a markup it reportedly caps at roughly 14 to 15 percent on most of what it sells. That leaves little room to soak up rising costs, and in 2026 they have kept coming, from beef to memory chips, while the tariff rules changed underneath them.
Shoppers feel it. A CNN and SSRS poll in May 2026 found 76 percent of Americans naming the cost of living as the biggest economic problem facing their family, and gas was still averaging above $4 a gallon nationally in October.
The cart worth filling this fall is the boring one. Imported pantry staples, protein with freezer life, canned goods that will sit happily for years, and two or three big-ticket items where chip prices are doing the real damage.
Kirkland Signature Organic Extra Virgin Olive Oil, $20.99
This is the single most exposed item in the warehouse. The United States imports almost all of its olive oil, mostly from Spain, Italy, Tunisia and Turkey, which means every bottle travels through a port and every tariff change touches it.
Buy two of the big bottles, not one. Kirkland Signature Extra Virgin Olive Oil is the other bulk option if the organic version is out.
Kirkland Signature House Blend Whole Bean Coffee, $17.99
Droughts, heatwaves and thin rainfall have hit the countries that actually grow the stuff, including Brazil and Vietnam, and lower production with steady demand only moves one way. Coffee prices surged through 2025 and the pressure has carried into 2026.
Worth knowing: coffee is one of the few categories here that could actually get cheaper. Most coffee imports are now exempt from US tariffs, so the real swing factor is weather and harvest size. If you drink a pot a day, grabbing a couple of bags now is cheap insurance. If you drink one cup on Sundays, do not build a bunker. The Kirkland Signature Colombian Coffee can is the other staple pick, and the price on it has been moving around.
Kirkland Signature Albacore Solid White Tuna in Water, $20.99
Eight cans of solid white albacore for $20.99. The USDA expects seafood prices to rise in 2026, and canned tuna is the rare item where stocking up carries almost no risk, since the cans will outlast your interest in them.
The per-can math at a warehouse club is usually well under what the same tuna costs at a regular grocery store, which is the entire reason to buy it in a pack of eight instead of one at a time. Costco’s canned salmon options are in the same aisle and follow the same logic. Shelf-stable protein bought before a forecast increase is about as close to a free win as grocery shopping gets.
Beef, and the $159.99 question
The USDA Food Price Outlook for 2026 predicts beef and veal prices will grow 9.4 percent this year, faster than their average rate of growth. Beef already climbed in 2025. Demand, sustainability efforts and supply constraints are all pressing on the same category at once.
Costco sells a Quality Ethnic Foods halal beef variety pack for $159.99 that includes three pounds of ground beef, three pounds of stew beef and three pounds of tenderloin steaks. That is a real commitment, and it only makes sense if you have the freezer room to break it down and portion it the day you get home. If you do not, Kirkland Signature Grass-Fed Beef Sticks are the low-stakes version of the same hedge. They sit on a shelf, they do not need to be thawed, and they lock in today’s beef pricing in a form you will actually eat.
Kirkland Signature Fresh Boneless Chicken Breasts, $3.39 per pound
Feed, labor and transportation costs have all been rising quietly in the background of the poultry case, though the USDA expects poultry prices to rise only about 1 percent in 2026.
At $3.39 a pound, boneless breasts are the cheapest serious protein in the building, and chicken is the one item here where buying ahead requires no guesswork. Costco’s frozen bags of breasts and thighs do the same job with less work, since they stay in the freezer for months and portion out across several meals without any repackaging on your end. Freezer space is the only constraint.
Del Monte Canned Corn, $12.99 for 12
Processed vegetable prices are also expected to increase in 2026, according to the USDA, which makes a twelve-pack of canned corn at $12.99 one of the least glamorous and most sensible things in your cart. It is packed in water with sea salt, so it goes into a side dish or a casserole without any fuss.
Canned beans and canned fruit fall under the same forecast. Costco’s Organic Black Beans are the version worth grabbing by the case, since they go into chili, rice bowls and soup without anyone noticing you are shopping your own pantry.
Kirkland Signature Three Berry Blend, frozen
Fresh raspberries and blackberries are expensive and fragile, and their prices swing with every harvest.
Frozen sidesteps the whole problem. The bulk bags like the Kirkland Signature Three Berry Blend hold far longer than the clamshells of fresh berries that go soft in four days, and the price per pound is not close. If you do want fresh, buy in bulk when they are cheap and freeze them yourself. Berries in a smoothie do not care whether they were frozen at the farm or in your kitchen.
Apple iPad, $329.99, and the Dell 16-inch laptop, $699.99
Memory chip prices have surged, and that cost is expected to push electronics manufacturers to raise prices in 2026. Tablets and laptops are first in line, because the chips are most of what you are paying for.
Costco’s iPad at $329.99 has 128 GB of storage, an 11-inch display, all-day battery life, a front camera for video calls and a back camera for scanning and video. The Dell 16-inch touchscreen laptop at $699.99 has a built-in microphone and camera and a backlit keyboard, and it comes with a 90-day return policy and a two-year warranty. That warranty is the part that makes buying a computer at a warehouse club worth considering at all. If a replacement was already on your list for this year, the purchase has a reason to happen sooner rather than later, and memory chip costs are still working their way into shelf prices.
Perry Ellis Men’s Casual Shoe, $24.97
Retail footwear prices were up 3.6 percent on the year by August 2026 as higher import costs worked their way to the shelf. A $24.97 casual shoe in black or brown, low top with a flat heel and a round toe, is the kind of purchase nobody plans and everybody eventually makes.
Clothing is under the same pressure. Textile and apparel import duties have raised the per-unit cost of manufacturing in the countries that have long supplied American closets, and Kirkland Signature clothing has gone through sourcing adjustments as a result. Apparel is not something to stockpile, but if you already know you need shoes this year, the price is not going to be friendlier in six months.
What Costco is doing on its end
Costco is not just passing costs along and shrugging. Chief executive Ron Vachris told analysts on the company’s March 2026 earnings call: “Our strategies include moving the country of production when that makes sense, consolidating buying efforts globally to lower the cost of goods.”
On the same call Vachris called the tariff picture extremely fluid, as the tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court in February gave way to new ones. Food prices have not waited for it to settle: the USDA expects sugar and sweets, candy and chocolate included, to rise 6.6 percent in 2026.
What I would actually put in the cart
Olive oil, coffee, canned tuna and canned vegetables are the four to buy without thinking twice. They are imported or forecast to rise, they cost little per unit, and nothing in the group will spoil before you get to it. Three months of use is a sane target. Ten years of canned corn is hoarding.
Chicken at $3.39 a pound and frozen berries are worth it only if you have freezer space, and the $159.99 beef pack is worth it only if you have a lot of freezer space and will actually cook stew beef. Electronics are a one-time decision, not a stockpiling strategy. Buy the iPad or the laptop if you were already replacing one this year, and skip it otherwise.
One caveat worth repeating: Kirkland Signature pricing and availability vary by location, so the number on your warehouse’s shelf may not match the one online. Check before you load up the flatbed.
