The holiday season brings an unexpected challenge this year as grocery stores across the United States face widespread egg shortages. Empty shelves have become a common sight in major cities from Chicago to Miami, forcing retailers to implement strict purchase limits. The cause? A devastating outbreak of H5N1 bird flu that has decimated commercial chicken populations, combined with peak seasonal demand.
Bird flu devastates US egg production
Over 33 million commercial egg-laying chickens have been culled in 2024 alone, with 15 million losses occurring since mid-October. California has been particularly hard hit, losing 2.5 million hens – nearly 40% of the nationwide losses since early November.
The situation worsens as the virus continues to spread, with recent outbreaks reported in Utah, Washington, and Oregon. Farm operations must eliminate entire flocks once the virus is detected, creating a devastating ripple effect throughout the supply chain.
Purchase limits become the new normal
Major retailers have implemented strict rationing measures to ensure fair distribution. Raley’s now limits customers to one carton per visit, while Save Mart caps purchases at two cartons. These restrictions arrive just as holiday baking season hits its peak, creating additional stress for home bakers and restaurants alike.
What happens when a bakery can’t secure their usual egg supply? Many are turning to alternatives like powdered eggs or liquid egg products, though these substitutions often come with higher costs and varying results in recipes.
Prices approach record territory
The shortage has triggered significant price increases across the country. Wholesale egg prices now average $3.95 per dozen in the fourth quarter, up from $3.17 in the previous quarter. Some experts warn prices might approach the record high of $4.82 set in January 2023.
Regular consumers feel the impact most acutely. November saw an 8.2% price increase compared to the same period last year, and the trend shows no immediate signs of reversal.
Relief expected by 2025
There’s a light at the end of the tunnel, according to USDA projections. Egg production is expected to rebound in the second half of 2025, with prices potentially dropping to an average of $2.30 per dozen. First-quarter prices should hover around $2.95 per dozen as farms gradually rebuild their flocks.
Meanwhile, farms nationwide are implementing enhanced biosecurity measures and increasing testing frequency to prevent further outbreaks. Some facilities now conduct multiple weekly tests and maintain strict quarantine protocols in unaffected areas.
As we navigate through this challenging period, the egg industry faces its most significant test in recent memory. While the current situation may test both patience and wallets, the coordinated efforts of farmers, regulators, and retailers provide hope for stabilization in the coming year. Until then, consumers might need to adjust their shopping habits and expectations – at least temporarily.
